Megan Perry and Grace Branshaw

Abstract:

Marburg Virus Disease (MVD) is a very rare yet deadly disease, often caused by a spillover event from the Rousettus aegyptiacus, commonly known as the Egyptian rousette or Egyptian fruit bat. This species of megabat is known as the natural reservoir for Marburg Virus Disease. These bats live throughout Africa, India, the Mediterranean and the Middle East. All known outbreaks have taken place or come from Africa. Spillover events do not occur very often and many times records are not clear. In several outbreaks, medical practices, record keeping and cultural practices have made the disease more difficult to study. Our goal was to mathematically model how Marburg can spread in a population. We also touch on the effects of using proper intervention such as isolation, safe burials, and PPE versus resisted or no intervention. Our results show that while Marburg has a very high fatality rate, it does not spread very easily. They also show, using proper interventions can lead to a shorter outbreak, saving many lives, if not, many will be affected and the outbreak can last several years.